WELCOME TO THE WINNER’S CURSE: 2025 -2026 Edition - When is the land cycle top?

“You need to model this stuff up but for a finger-into-the-wind guess, you would see prices rise 8-15 per cent, 12 months after the polices were enacted,” 

The words come from the founder of SQM Research, Louis Christopher, in response to the policies on the table for the upcoming Federal Election. And they’re not to be brushed aside!  

Louis is one of the most accurate economic forecasters on the property market in Australia.

Each year he produces a ‘Boom and Bust’ report. It predicts movements in property prices for the calendar year ahead across all Australian states and territories.  It’s incredibly comprehensive in its content – takes a significant amount of time to prepare - and well worth checking out!

But importantly for our benefit, SQM’s report has been more accurate in its short-term yearly forecasts than any other data agency in Australia! This includes Domain, CoreLogic, PropTrack, Australian Property Monitors, and the REIA etc.

So, when Louis speaks up – I listen! And perhaps a little closer than I would to other property market forecasters – including the major banks!

In short – both parties are suiting up for a housing showdown. No matter who wins, prices can only go one way – up!  And if Louis is right (which he usually is) - it's not going to be a modest increase.

The Housing Market’s About to Get Lit

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