As subscribers know, we’re in the final stretch before the peak of the land cycle—and also the peak of the Kondratieff wave.
This is the point in the cycle when typically, we expect speculation to collide with geopolitical shocks, rising costs, and central banks tightening credit.
Historically, this is not a point in the cycle when inflation collapses.
If anything, interest rates either go higher or stay high for longer - crushing overleveraged investors who may assume rate cuts will bail them out or keep the cycle going for longer.
This is ultimately what pops the bubble - land prices collapse due to too much land-driven speculation hollowing out the productive sectors of the economy. It leaves workers unable to sustain the debt when the crunch point arrives.
Could rates be cut? Sure. We’ve already seen it happen the U.S. and the U.K. – but will it continue?
History tells us that central banks are more likely to keep rates elevated into the peak.
If we look back at every land cycle peak since the turn of the last century – you can see the pattern emerging.