Trump's Land Grabs and Rate Cuts - Inflation and Deflation in Land Cycle History..

A common strategy folk have in mind to profit from the land cycle — and one that dominates traditional thinking—is the classic playbook: sell at the peak, buy at the bottom.

With the current cycle nearing the peak (2026/7), it’s no surprise that this approach is at the forefront of many minds.

In theory, it’s a logical plan. Cycles, at first glance, appear straightforward—common sense tells us what should happen. But in practice, timing the market is never that simple. Each cycle brings its own peculiarities, unexpected twists that challenge even the most well-thought-out plans.

In the last cycle, generous homebuyer grants and aggressive government spending pulled the national median property price back from what looked like the brink of collapse—just as the world's biggest financial markets plunged into recession—pushing it to a new peak by 2010.

It pulled the rug out from those that were timing the land cycle for “cheap” real estate deals.

And as far as twists and turns go, this cycle has been no exception.

Take the mid-cycle—there was little reason to believe it would cause significant economic disruptions.

Yet, reality had other plans.

None would have foreseen one of the longest lockdowns in the world, during which the real estate industry was completely shut down in Melbourne and Sydney for weeks at a time.

With that came vaccine mandates, rapid shifts in market behaviour and migration patterns, along with significant economic disruption from the biggest government spend in history. It was an unprecedented fiscal stimulus, far exceeding previous financial crises, and World War-era spending.

Then came the aggressive rise in interest rates—earlier in the second half of the cycle than expected—throwing the property market into disarray once again as we entered 2022.

Now, as we approach the end of the cycle, a time when interest rates would typically rise to cool speculation and push over-leveraged owners into distress, we’re seeing the opposite. Rate cuts! The first just last week, and market pricing suggests at least one more drop this year.

Want to read more?

Subscribe to landcycleinvestor.com to keep reading this exclusive post.

Subscribe Now