The Tower That Never Rose—But the Timing Still Held
In 2014, I wrote the following for then subscribers of Cycles Trends & Forecasts over at Fat Tail Invesment Research - (later published as part of the Cashmore Files which can be read in the Members Publication area of the website)
In 2019, Australia 108, the largest residential tower in the Southern Hemisphere, will open its doors in Melbourne. Construction has already started, with the penthouse selling for a record$25 million to a Chinese businessman based overseas. It coincides nicely with the race to buildthe current ‘world’s tallest’. Kingdom Tower in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and the Phoenix Towers in Wutan, China, are the two projects in contention.
Kingdom Tower will be 1 kilometre tall. However, if all goes to plan, Phoenix Towers will pip thetitle a few months later at just over 1 kilometre in height.
And now, just six years after unveiling the world’s tallest building, Dubai-based real estategiant Emaar Properties announced it will build a skyscraper that will be taller than theBurj Khalifa.
His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum proudly tweeted
““We have Burj Khalifa, the tallest globally, and Dubai Holding and Emaar launched yesterday a tower that is higher than it, and time will not affect our dreams except increase them in highness and glory.”
Who said Pride comes before a fall?
All the above towers are set to open late 2019 into 2020. As a result, 2020 will mark a period of depressed economic activity. If you’re a savvy investor - it could be an excellent time to buy land in preparation for the second half of the real estate cycle beginning 2021… “
This wasn’t a hard forecast to make.
Without exception, the completion of every world’s tallest building for over a century has coincided with an economic downturn. It’s a phenomenon now known as the Skyscraper Curse.